4th Quarter 2015 Market Update

Quarter_4_MC_2015.pngThe US economy continued to improve through Q4, although the recovery remained fragile with pockets of weakness. Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.0% in Q3, down from 3.9% in Q2. In November, the unemployment rate improved to 5.0%, its lowest level since April 2008. Wage growth remained modest. Consumer spending was strong, rising at a 3.2% annual pace for Q3. In December, the Federal Reserve voted unanimously to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, its first increase since 2006. The slowdown in China, weak oil prices and the strong dollar created a difficult scenario for worldwide stock markets in 2015. After an abysmal Q3 for many markets worldwide, U.S. stocks rebounded in Q4 with all sectors having positive returns for the quarter. Some international markets recovered in Q4 while others continued to decline. Europe, China, and Japan rebounded in Q4 after significant declines in Q3. Valuations have gotten more expensive; the forward P/E for the S&P 500 Index at year-end was 16.1x versus a 25-year average of 15.8x. On the fixed income side, the yield on 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bonds increased 10% during the quarter to 2.27%. There were growing concerns about the high-yield market late in 2015, with high yield bonds declining 2.06% during Q4 and 4.52% for the year. Inflation remained low. Commodities continued to struggle as a result of weakening global demand from China and low energy prices. The Bloomberg Commodity Index lost an additional 10.52% for Q4. REITs had strong performance, increasing 7.13% for the quarter and 2.29  

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